CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-11-22T21:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-11-22T21:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27829/-1
CME Note: Southern directed CME as seen in LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. Partial halo. Source is a faint and broad area of dimming spanning from about E20-W30 (near AR3489 to AR3498) starting at about 2023-11-22T20:45Z as seen in SDO AIA 171/193 and GOES SUVI 284 imagery. There was a C4.1-class flare from AR 3489 (S15E07) with peak time 2023-11-22T19:02Z associated with this event. Arrival signature is complex, with solar wind speed was jumping from 480 km/s to over 550 km/s, reaching a maximum near 600 km/s and a corresponding amplification of B_total from 7 nT to 18 nT and of density from 17 to over 25 particles/cc. The signature is complicated by the preceding arrival of a coronal high speed stream on 2023-11-24.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-25T07:59Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-26T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 4.5 GONG: mrzqs Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop. Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 23/0535 Radial velocity (km/s): 540 Longitude (deg): 2W Latitude (deg): 37S Half-angular width (deg): 55 Notes: Space weather advisor: LHLead Time: 49.48 hour(s)
Difference: -16.02 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-11-23T06:30Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy